Numerical simulation of Hurricane-DORIAN


An experimental diagnosis storm analysis model S@D!S, based on the complex convective criteria has been developed and progressively tested on a different atmospheric cases by Dr. Vlado Spiridonov, visiting professor at University of Vienna, shows nicely the expected position of the Hurricane Dorian on September 03, 2019 as a part of +66 hours advanced forecast from the WRF-ARW assimilated data, on a 6-hour step, based on the parametrization algorithm and Thompson’s Microphysics.

Like most of the NAM ensemble members keeping the hurricane away from hitting Florida directly, S@D!S is also in a perfect alignment with the latest ensemble forecast and shows a northeasterly shift towards the Georgia and the Carolinas, where it is expected that Dorian will weaken from Category 5 to Category 4 storm.

Hence, it is expected that Florida will likely avoid the direct hit from Dorian.

Visualization performed in Open Grads. Fig. 1 shows 10m horizontal wind spped and direction, 700 hPa absolute vorticity, 700 hPa relative humidity and hourly rain on 3 Sep 2019 at 1800 UTC (-6) Florida. A set of animated files with hourly distributions are also prepared.

dorian 700RH (© IMGW)

dorian wind (© IMGW)

dorian vorticity (© IMGW)

dorian rain (© IMGW)