stefano.serafin(at)univie.ac.at
Josef-Holaubek-Platz 2 (UZA II), 1090 Vienna
Roomnumber: 2G556
T: +43-1-4277-537 13
- 2020: Senior Scientist, University of Vienna
- 2018: National scientific qualification (Italy), disciplines 04/A4 (Geophysics) and 02/C1 (Astronomy, Astrophysics, Earth and Planetary Sciences)
- 2018: Project leader, University of Innsbruck
- 2010: Assistant professor, University of Vienna
- 2006: Doctorate in Environmental Engineering, University of Trento (Italy)
- 2002: Project scientist, CETEMPS/University of L'Aquila (Italy)
- 2002: Degree in Environmental Science, University of Milano-Bicocca (Italy)
- Complete curriculum vitae
Research Interests
- Mountain meteorology
- Dynamic meteorology
- Numerical weather prediction
- Boundary-layer meteorology
Projects
- 2024-2028: FWF (Austrian Science Fund) Stand-alone project P 37259, "DEmonstrating Parameter Estimation with eNsemble-based Data Assimilation for Boundary-Layer modElling over mountains"
- 2018-present: TEAMx (Multi-scale transport and exchange processes in the atmosphere over mountains – Programme and experiment)
- 2018-2022: FWF (Austrian Science Fund) Stand-alone project P 30808, "Multiscale Interactions in Convection Initiation in the Alps"
- 2012-2015: FWF (Austrian Science Fund) Stand-alone project P 24726, "STABLEST: Stable boundary layer separation and turbulence"
Links
- ORCID / ResearcherID / Scopus profiles
- Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences (ACINN), University of Innsbruck
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento
- CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila
Publications
Skill and Potential Economic Value of Forecasts of Ice Accretion on Wind Turbines
- Author(s)
- Lukas Strauss, Stefano Serafin, Manfred Dorninger
- Abstract
In this paper, a verification study of the skill and potential economic value of forecasts of ice accretion on wind turbines is presented. The phase of active ice formation on turbine blades has been associated with the strongest wind power production losses in cold climates; however, skillful icing forecasts could permit taking protective measures using anti-icing systems. Coarse- and high-resolution forecasts for the range up to day 3 from global (IFS and GFS) and limited-area (WRF) models are coupled to the Makkonen icing model. Surface and upper-air observations and icing measurements at turbine hub height at two wind farms in central Europe are used for model verification over two winters. Two case studies contrasting a correct and an incorrect forecast highlight the difficulty of correctly predicting individual icing events. A meaningful assessment of model skill is possible only after bias correction of icing-related parameters and selection of model-dependent optimal thresholds for ice growth rate. The skill of bias-corrected forecasts of freezing and humid conditions is virtually identical for all models. Hourly forecasts of active ice accretion generally show limited skill; however, results strongly suggest the superiority of high-resolution WRF forecasts relative to other model variants. Predictions of the occurrence of icing within a period of 6 h are found to have substantially better accuracy. Probabilistic forecasts of icing that are based on gridpoint neighborhood ensembles show slightly higher potential economic value than forecasts that are based on individual gridpoint values, in particular at low cost-loss ratios, that is, when anti-icing measures are comparatively inexpensive.
- Organisation(s)
- Department of Meteorology and Geophysics
- Journal
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
- Volume
- 59
- Pages
- 1845–1864
- No. of pages
- 20
- ISSN
- 1558-8424
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0025.1
- Publication date
- 11-2020
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 105204 Climatology, 105206 Meteorology
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Atmospheric Science
- Portal url
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/3d9288bf-ba3f-411d-815a-fcdc16c72d3f