Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

Author(s)
Antje Weisheimer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Tim Stockdale, Michael Mayer, S. Sharmila, Harry Hendon, Oscar Alves
Abstract

In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901–2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s–1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non-monotonic skill modulations.

Organisation(s)
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics
External organisation(s)
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), University of Southern Queensland
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume
49
No. of pages
12
ISSN
0094-8276
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885
Publication date
05-2022
Peer reviewed
Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012
105206 Meteorology
Keywords
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Geophysics, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Portal url
https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/variability-of-enso-forecast-skill-in-2year-global-reforecasts-over-the-20th-century(5ac5c729-0dfb-4a1a-8ad1-7a451e67f358).html