Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century
- Author(s)
- Antje Weisheimer, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Tim Stockdale, Michael Mayer, S. Sharmila, Harry Hendon, Oscar Alves
- Abstract
In order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901–2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long-range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi-decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s–1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi-decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non-monotonic skill modulations.
- Organisation(s)
- Department of Meteorology and Geophysics
- External organisation(s)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), University of Southern Queensland
- Journal
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume
- 49
- No. of pages
- 12
- ISSN
- 0094-8276
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL097885
- Publication date
- 05-2022
- Peer reviewed
- Yes
- Austrian Fields of Science 2012
- 105206 Meteorology
- Keywords
- ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Geophysics, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
- Portal url
- https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/variability-of-enso-forecast-skill-in-2year-global-reforecasts-over-the-20th-century(5ac5c729-0dfb-4a1a-8ad1-7a451e67f358).html