Distributions and convergence of forecast variables in a 1000 member convection-permitting ensemble

Author(s)
George C. Craig, Matjaz Puh, Christian Keil, Kirsten Tempest, Tobias Necker, Juan Ruiz , Martin Weissmann, Takemasa Miyoshi
Abstract

The errors in numerical weather forecasts resulting from limited ensemble size are explored using 1,000-member forecasts of convective weather over Germany at 3-km resolution. A large number of forecast variables at different lead times were examined, and their distributions could be classified into three categories: quasi-normal (e.g., tropospheric temperature), highly skewed (e.g. precipitation), and mixtures (e.g., humidity). Dependence on ensemble size was examined in comparison to the asymptotic convergence law that the sampling error decreases proportional to N-1/2 for large enough ensemble size N, independent of the underlying distribution shape. The asymptotic convergence behavior was observed for the ensemble mean of all forecast variables, even for ensemble sizes less than 10. For the ensemble standard deviation, sizes of up to 100 were required for the convergence law to apply. In contrast, there was no clear sign of convergence for the 95th percentile even with 1,000 members. Methods such as neighborhood statistics or prediction of area-averaged quantities were found to improve accuracy, but only for variables with random small-scale variability, such as convective precipitation.

Organisation(s)
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics
External organisation(s)
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera, CIME/CONICET‐UBA, Ulmer Fundamental Symmetries Laboratory
Journal
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume
148
Pages
2325-2343
No. of pages
19
ISSN
0035-9009
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4305
Publication date
10-2021
Peer reviewed
Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012
105206 Meteorology
Keywords
ASJC Scopus subject areas
Atmospheric Science
Portal url
https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/distributions-and-convergence-of-forecast-variables-in-a-1000-member-convectionpermitting-ensemble(0cfd2c78-6257-4d90-80fb-3b01435e2361).html